I have two thoughts on the topic. First of all, I am mystified how anybody can find fault in more sunshine. (I've always enjoyed it, and most people plan their vacations around pursuit of it.) Environmentalists continually complain about man's influence on the planet, and how we should strive to leave lighter footprints. This is probably the first time that reverting back to a more natural state is considered a problem. Perhaps the scientists over at Nature think that Communism is the natural state of Eastern Europe.
Secondly, I am mystified by the remark in the article by Andreas Macke, a meteorologist at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel, Germany, "It is clear that the greenhouse effect has been partly masked in the past by air pollution." In other words, global warming would have been a lot worse by now, had the pollution not been shading us.
Here's the strange part: It wasn't until now that climate science has been aware of the effect, which means it wasn't included in the models that climatologists rely on to predict global warming. Martin Wild, an atmospheric scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich said that "The widespread brightening has remained unnoticed until now simply because there wasn't enough data for a statistically significant analysis." But yet we are told the climate models predicting a warming earth were severely accurate.
Perhaps I'm just not well trained in the ways of science, but it would seem to me, that cannot be true. If the models were incomplete, they should have been spitting out the wrong numbers for the past ten years and the earth should have been getting warmer at a rate higher than the predictions. But scientists have denied this, they've been saying their models are deadly accurate. So If the model predictions directly correspond to observations, and the additional sunlight was never taken into account, it means the models have been wrong. Either way, the result is the same; climatology is a very hypothetical science, still in its adolescence. Also note, this proves another speculation I've always held, that atmospheric scientists have a tendency to look on the darker side of things, and always err on the side of apocalypse. Remember that the next time you hear somebody suggest Americans were foolish to ignore the Kyoto Accord.
No comments:
Post a Comment