Shut up Orac

During my recent week in Chicago, My show was attended by Orac, of the marginally famous blog Respectful Insolence. I recognized him right away, because he was the only guy in the room that night, wearing a cape and wrestling mask. (I found out later, that on the few occasions he leaves the house, he likes to remain incognito).
When the show ended, we went over to the bar. After he was done signing autographs, I made the mistake of asking him a couple questions. They were honest questions, because I respect his intelligence. I’ve never been able to get an answer from political opponents on two issues: Is there any scientific basis for Al Gore’s claim of the oceans rising 20 feet? And whether there were any conclusive studies on the dangers of second hand smoke. He told me to send him an eMail, and he would respond. I did not know that I was setting myself up to be trashed. You can read his snippy review of my show, and the flimsy reply to Al Gore’s claim of 20 feet here. My response follows:

I'll try and keep this as brief and readable as possible. Going point by point tends to bore.

1. Ad Hominem attacks: Remember this was a comedy show, and ad hominem is funny. (Perhaps not so much when you are a target, but laughing at oneself is a good measure of a sense of humor.) Comics like Don Rickles focus entirely on ad hominem attacks. The biggest attack on Gore was not that he was fat, but rather a hypocritical Televangelist, who uses fear of apocalypse to enrich himself, promote his agenda, and gain political points. We all distain Pat Robertson for similar behaviors, but Gore is awarded with Oscars and a Nobel Prize.


2. I never said Global Warming wasn’t true: I said that people (not scientists) tend to explain every extreme weather event as a result of Global Warming. Certainly, if a 116 degree day in Vegas, or a devastating hurricane is evidence of Global Warming (As proponents such as Laurie David and RFK jr. often suggest), then the 30th coldest February in recorded history, must be evidence to the contrary. By suggesting that February was proof that Global Warming isn't happening, I was using satire, to illustrate that those who cite anecdotal evidence, are off base.
And yes, I am aware that some climate models do predict areas of the earth to go colder, but that is only areas that require the gulfstream and the Thermohaline Conveyor for their temperate climates. That doesn’t include Chicago. Anyone who thinks this past cold winter in the Midwest was evidence of Global Warming is seriously misguided, and deserves any ad hominem I can toss their way.


3. Scientist Envy: This was another ad hominem attack, I used to generate a little levity. Just between you and me, it’s semi-autobiographical. I was that geeky kid with allergies and asthma, who got beat up for lunch money, and creamed on the dodgeball court. And I understand how such a childhood can translate into bitterness and envy. I also know, that outside of a few large profile celebrities, who have no intention of giving up their high end lifestyles (See: Live Earth), most of the people campaigning hard for things like legislative restrictions on consumption, tend to be on the lower end of the income brackets; and are usually Starbucks baristas, bicycle messengers, or government employees (more ad hominem levity).
My speculation is, that smart kids who are bullied in school, grow up to be bullies themselves. Only, they become intellectual bullies. My liberal use of insults on stage is one symptom of that syndrome. Your need to publish the response to my question on your blog, without even asking me if I would mind, is another. (I’d have given you permission, I just would have liked if you asked first, and given me fair warning that I needed to prepare a rebuttal). Such behavior is indicative of someone still hurting from those dodgeball welts. I think perhaps, the reason you didn’t find the bit funny. is because it made those welts sting again. Your remark about getting laid a lot, doesn’t do much to alleviate my suspicions either.


4. Scientists have been wrong before: They have. And they will be wrong again the future. They could be wrong right now. We just don’t know. What I do know, is that any legislation passed to “rectify” global warming will far outlive any consensus. It is not the science I oppose, it is the solutions.
Look at the Kyoto Accord. India and China were both exempted from any restrictions on burning carbon, because at the time they were considered “developing” nations. They are now home to two of the hottest economies in the world, and China is now the number one producer of CO2 in the world. So what would have Kyoto done to slow Global Warming? Nothing measurable. On the other hand, it would most probably have been devastating to the US economy, and put outsourcing into high gear. Cheap labor has already soaked up a lot of American manufacturing; cheap energy would have been a final nail in our economic coffin, Meanwhile, the Kyoto Accord is still alive, and there are people who insist that America needs to sign on.
Incidentally, it is not true that Scientific consensus “overwhelmingly favors the contention that global warming is indeed due to a significant degree to human activity.” The latest survey put that consensus at 55.8% of climate scientists. Your citation of the IPCC report as an indication of consensus is incredibly misleading, since some scientists who oppose the report, had their opinions dismissed. Richard Lindzen even claims he had to sue to get his name removed from it.
And even if the consensus were 99.9%, does that make it correct? Scientific consensus was vehemently opposed to Plate Tectonic theory, for forty years. Consensus is not science, it is politics.

5. 20 Feet: This was the only point I really wanted to discuss, before you decided to make me a lengthy blog entry. You write: if half of the ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted, sea levels could rise 20 feet (6 metres).” (emphasis mine)
That’s a big “If." You know, If flying space monkeys lifted up Mt. Everest, and dropped it into Lake Michigan, the resulting tidal wave could destroy Chicago, Milwaukee, Benton Harbor and Green Bay. But is there any science suggesting either occurrence is likely?
Here is a great example of how scientists are occasionally wrong (even Orac). You write:

“The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.”

But according to an article released just last week in Science, DNA samples indicate that Greenland did not melt 125,000 years ago. In fact: “The new discoveries suggest that southern Greenland has been ice-covered for at least four times longer than previously thought.”
And what about Antarctica you say? It’s been getting colder. And the ice is getting thicker.

Hardly reason to sell the beach house.